Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil is part of distinguished panel of engineers that says solar power will scale up to produce all the energy needs of Earth’s people in 20 years.  He predicted the fall of the Soviet Union and the explosive spread of the Internet and wireless access – so he may be on to something.

There is 10,000 times more sunlight than we need to meet 100 percent of our energy needs, he says, and the technology needed for collecting and storing it is about to emerge as the field of solar energy is going to advance exponentially in accordance with Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns. That law yields a doubling of price performance in information technologies every year.  Kurzweil predicts a doubling of solar capacity every two years, yielding 1,000 times greater power in 20 years – enough to meet 100% of our energy needs. In Kurzweil’s words,  “One of my primary theses is that information technologies grow exponentially in capability and power and bandwidth and so on. If you buy an iPhone today, it’s twice as good as two years ago for half that cost. That is happening with solar energy — it is doubling every two years. And it didn’t start two years ago, it started 20 years ago. Every two years we have twice as much solar energy in the world.”

In fact, solar power installations are already accelerating exponentially, even faster than Kurzweil predicts.  The European Photovoltaic Industry Association says that global solar power installations more than doubled in 2010, with 16 gigawatts of new solar PV added. 2009 saw 7.2 GW of new installations.  Reuters provides a breakdown of who’s installing what: 13 GW of the world’s new solar PV was installed in Europe (mostly in Germany and Italy). Outside of that, Japan added about 1 GW, the United States added 0.8 GW, and China added 0.4 GW.  For comparison, a nuclear power station supplies about 3 GW.  In total, the world’s solar PV capacity is about 40 GW, up from 23 GW in 2009.

Solar and wind power currently supply about 1 percent of the world’s energy needs, Kurzweil said, but advances in technology are about to expand with the introduction of nano-engineered materials for solar panels, making them far more efficient, lighter and easier to install. Google has invested substantially in companies pioneering these approaches.

Kurzweil thus predicts energy independence within ten to fifteen years  – which is quite amazing.  With boundless energy will come solutions to global warming and water shortages.  In fact, there is no water shortage – only a clean water shortage. Unlimited energy will open the door to new ways to filter water, fuel vehicles, grow food hydroponically and solve many grave problems.

Clearly, America still lags in new solar installations, but is starting to recognize the power of solar farm installations in desert areas, and the use of abundant commercial building surfaces.  But, we keep missing the moment for promoting the coming switch to green power.  Bush missed it woefully in 2001, and Obama is yet to align incentives to end the stop/ start development of solar and wind technology.  And yet again we are hostage to rapidly rising oil prices.

In an economy with record unemployment, the state of Georgia has turned down billions of dollars in federal grants intended to stimulate investment in renewable energy in the last year and a half, according to Wes Hudson, Principal with Resnick Group in  the Atlanta Business Chronicle. Georgia continues to lag behind other states (and the world) when it comes to renewable energy.

Georgia consumes about 1.4 Twh of energy per year.  It is estimated by the USRC that just 0.25% of Georgia’s land area could provide 100% of the state’s annual need. Georgia is in the top 10 states in solar energy potential but 38th when it comes to solar energy projects connected to the grid, according to Michelle Conlon of the Georgia Solar Energy Association.  While we are all familiar in Georgia with being 38th – in SAT scores, traffic, college education, safety etc, it’s a shame that this opportunity is passing the state by.  According to clean energy enthusiasts, politics and powerful lobbyists for fossil fuel industries are one of the main causes of this obstructionism.  A local politician actually went on record to say that, “Georgia does not have enough sun to sustain solar ” – which will surely take its place alongside such gems as, “Everything worthwhile has already been invented.” 

Perhaps the rapidly developing power of solar energy will encourage business owners and residential customers to simply bypass the old power companies, much as other dinosaurs in music, computers, film, software, and books have been dis-enfranchised. ” I don’t need your stinking powerstation, when I have my mini solar dish.” 

What do you think?