{"id":1485,"date":"2011-02-16T07:39:53","date_gmt":"2011-02-16T07:39:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shanecampbellcfo.com\/?p=93"},"modified":"2023-10-05T21:08:17","modified_gmt":"2023-10-05T21:08:17","slug":"my-top-5-predictions-for-business-in-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.b2bcfo.com\/shane-campbell\/predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"My top 5 predictions for business in 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lets start with the first one \u2013 economic recovery.\u00a0 Ok I have to gloat a little.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s a quote from my blog \u201cDomination\u201d back on October 16, 2010, just four short months ago:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; padding-left: 30px;\"><strong><em><span style=\"color: #000080;\">\u201cAs the economy improves, there will be opportunities in the marketplace for the remaining \u201csurvival of the fittest\u201d businesses. The \u201cRecovery of 2011\u2033 (yes you heard the term here first) will\u00a0certainly benefit companies that survived the Great Recession, but especially\u00a0those that have solid business plans in place, ready to pounce\u00a0on market opportunities as they occur.\u00a0 Market domination for these strong companies may not be that far fetched, and may not be that far away.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Well just as predicted, the economy has gotten better.\u00a0 <strong><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Much better<\/span><\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 The S&amp;P 500 is generally a very good gauge of the true economic state of affairs.\u00a0 Here is the chart from October 2010 through Valentine&#8217;s Day 2011:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How about unemployment?\u00a0 Even though it is a trailing economic indicator, if the economy is re-engaging, then we should be seeing some job growth, right?\u00a0 We in California might not be experiencing it yet, but job growth seems to be back and unemployement rates shrinking:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So you think I either cheated or got lucky, like a blind squirrel finding a nut.\u00a0 You want more predictions.\u00a0 Well I have four more left.\u00a0 Here they are:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Prediction #2: <\/strong>The California economy will recover late in comparison to other states due to our constant budget crisis, and since California real estate incurred such a vast\u00a0correction after the Fall 2008 crash.\u00a0 However, once the recovery in California commences, the rebound will be robust &#8211;\u00a0an equal but opposite reaction to the market over-correction since 2008.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/cleantech.com\/about\/pressreleases\/Cleantech-Group-Announces-2010-US-Smart-Grid-Vendor-Ecosystem-Report.cfm\">The recovery will be financed in part by the resurgence of private equity and venture capital, investing in smart grid, alternative energy, and other Cleantech initiatives to lead the charge.<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Prediction #3: <\/strong>Inflation and interest rates will rise, but only moderately.\u00a0 Commodity prices will increase as a natural byproduct of an improving economy.\u00a0 When people make more things, there is a greater demand for the raw materials.\u00a0 As demand increases, prices go up.\u00a0 No problem. Producer price indexes will stay in check because of a battered labor market.\u00a0 The\u00a0reality of <a href=\"http:\/\/cleantech.com\/about\/pressreleases\/Cleantech-Group-Announces-2010-US-Smart-Grid-Vendor-Ecosystem-Report.cfm\">wage or &#8220;cost&#8221; push inflation <\/a>is not on the horizon anytime soon.\u00a0 With inflation held in moderation and a real estate market that is a couple of years away from recovery, the demand for debt will remain low, keeping interest rates in moderation as well.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Prediction #4<\/strong>: There will be a massive jump in corporate mergers and acquisitions.\u00a0 S&amp;P 500 companies are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=a6kXsL1Q5FYc\">bloated with cash <\/a>and eventually must find a home for it or face falling return on assets.\u00a0 This M&amp;A frenzy will eventually find its way down to the small business demographic.\u00a0 Remember, a corporate M&amp;A executive\u2019s job is to underpay for your business so be armed and ready.\u00a0 See my blogs here, as well as\u00a0the\u00a0B2B CFO<sup>\u00ae\u00a0<\/sup>website on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.b2bcfo.com\/part-time-cfo\/publications\/finding-the-exit\/\">Exit Planning<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Prediction #5<\/strong>:\u00a0Northern California&#8217;s\u00a0own\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com\/index.jsp?c_id=sf\">World Champion San Francisco Giants<\/a> will return to the playoffs due largely to the strength of the young pitching staff.\u00a0 Run production will improve as a slimmed down Pablo Sandoval and a full year of Cody Ross will provide increased offensive fire power. Repeating as World Champions is tough to predict, but it will be a lot of fun to watch.\u00a0 Ok \u2013 this isn\u2019t a business prediction, just don&#8217;t tell that to the Giant\u2019s front office who waited 52 years between pennants.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There you are \u2013 my top 5 business predictions for 2011. Are they right?\u00a0 Of course.\u00a0 Weather guys get it wrong half the time.\u00a0 Economists too.\u00a0 But accounting and finance guys\u00a0usually get it right.\u00a0 That\u2019s why we are so darn boring.\u00a0 Well, one of the reasons&#8230;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;There will be a massive jump in corporate mergers and acquisitions.  S&amp;P 500 companies are bloated with cash and eventually must find a home for it or face falling return on assets.  This M&amp;A frenzy will eventually find its way down to the small business demographic.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_editorskit_title_hidden":false,"_editorskit_reading_time":0,"_editorskit_is_block_options_detached":false,"_editorskit_block_options_position":"{}","cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-shanes-really-deep-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>My top 5 predictions for business in 2011 | CFO Services | B2B CFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Well just as predicted, the economy has gotten better.\u00a0 Much better.\u00a0 The S&amp;P 500 is 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